{"id":1193,"date":"2014-03-17T12:18:16","date_gmt":"2014-03-17T16:18:16","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/blogs.nybg.org\/science-talk\/?p=1193"},"modified":"2014-03-17T12:18:37","modified_gmt":"2014-03-17T16:18:37","slug":"understanding-the-past-and-predicting-the-future-of-a-biological-hotspot","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/2014\/03\/understanding-the-past-and-predicting-the-future-of-a-biological-hotspot\/","title":{"rendered":"Understanding the Past and Predicting the Future of a Biological Hotspot"},"content":{"rendered":"

Fabi\u00e1n A. Michelangeli, Ph.D.<\/a>, is an Associate Curator of the Institute of Systematic Botany at The New York Botanical Garden<\/a>. His research focuses in part on the evolution, identification, and classification of neotropical plants.<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n

\n
\"Canopy<\/a>
Canopy of Atlantic Forest in Espiritu Santo. Less than 11 percent of the original forest remains.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

With their rich diversity of species, including many found nowhere else,\u00a0the Atlantic forests of eastern Brazil constitute one of Earth\u2019s biodiversity hotspots. They demonstrate a truly unique set of environmental, geological, and biological conditions. But because of\u00a0rapid population growth in the region and more than\u00a0400 years of continuous deforestation, less than 11 percent of the original forest area still exists.<\/p>\n

To understand how the coastal forests developed and what could happen to them in the future,\u00a0an international team of scientists spanning many disciplines met in Brazil last month\u00a0to begin work on a new research project that could help in\u00a0efforts to conserve what remains of these ecological marvels. The goal of the project, which is expected to last five years,\u00a0is to study\u00a0the conditions that led to these high levels of biodiversity and localized species and to develop\u00a0models to predict\u00a0what may happen to that biodiversity in light of further habitat destruction and climate change.
\n
\nThe scientists\u00a0include biodiversity specialists working on plants, frogs, lizards, birds, local harvesters, and animal physiology. In addition, there are geologists, specialists\u00a0who study ancient climates,\u00a0and experts on remote sensing and climate modeling.\u00a0Led by Prof. Ana Carnaval of\u00a0The City College\u00a0of New York and Prof. Cristina Miyaki of\u00a0the University of Sao Paulo, the group’s members come\u00a0from the United States, Brazil, France, and Australia.<\/p>\n

\"Granitic<\/a>
Granitic outcrops and cloud forest in the State of Rio de Janeiro. Mountain systems such as this harbor a great proportion of the endemic<\/a> species in the Atlantic Forests.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

My colleague W. Wayt Thomas, Ph.D.,\u00a0who is the Elizabeth G. Britton Curator of Botany, and I are participating in the research effort because of our\u00a0expertise in the\u00a0plants of\u00a0eastern Brazil. The New York Botanical Garden is a logical partner in this\u00a0undertaking\u00a0because of its longstanding commitment to studying the flora of Brazil, including the Atlantic coastal forests. The Botanical Garden has\u00a0a\u00a0wealth of information on plant distributions for the area because of\u00a0the more than\u00a0135,000 specimens from eastern Brazil\u00a0in the William and Lynda Steere Herbarium<\/a>. Data from these specimens\u00a0will form\u00a0the cornerstone of many of the environmental models that the project will produce.<\/p>\n

More than\u00a045 scientists, post-doctoral researchers, and graduate students from all research groups involved\u00a0in this ambitious effort\u00a0met for five days in S\u00e3o Paulo to launch our work. The first day of the meeting, at the offices of the S\u00e3o Paulo state research foundation,\u00a0included\u00a0over\u00a0a dozen seminars, and more than\u00a040 posters on a variety of topics relating to the biodiversity in the Atlantic forests were presented. Intended\u00a0not only for\u00a0the team members but\u00a0the academic community in general,\u00a0the day’s sessions and presentations were attended by more than 300 scientists and students.<\/p>\n

\"Prof.<\/a>
Prof. Ana Carnaval of the City College of New York leads the discussion at the first meeting of the Atlantic Forest team in S\u00e3o Paulo, February 2014.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Meetings on the following four days, held at the beautiful Horto Botanico in northern S\u00e3o Paulo, were devoted to group discussions and the exchange of ideas about\u00a0how to\u00a0integrate and share data to\u00a0create a\u00a0model for\u00a0understanding the\u00a0factors responsible for the origin and maintenance of biodiversity in eastern Brazil. With that understanding, we think it will\u00a0be possible to predict how species will respond to rapid environmental changes over the next 50 to 100 years, which will help us to identify\u00a0groups of species likely to become threatened or endangered and habitats\u00a0that need\u00a0to be preserved.<\/p>\n

Now the real work begins as we set out to integrate data from all these fields to\u00a0find patterns in species distributions and their underlying causes, so that we truly understand this unique environment.<\/p>\n

This project is co-funded by the National Science Foundation (NSF), National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), and Funda\u00e7\u00e3o de Amparo \u00e0 Pesquisa do Estado de S\u00e3o Paulo (FAPESP).<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The NYBG helps lead a charge to protect South America’s vanishing Atlantic forests.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":24,"featured_media":1195,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"spay_email":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_is_tweetstorm":false},"categories":[44],"tags":[291,84,292,80,293,225,119],"yoast_head":"\nUnderstanding the Past and Predicting the Future of a Biological Hotspot - Science Talk Archive<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/2014\/03\/understanding-the-past-and-predicting-the-future-of-a-biological-hotspot\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Understanding the Past and Predicting the Future of a Biological Hotspot - Science Talk Archive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"The NYBG helps lead a charge to protect South America's vanishing Atlantic forests.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/2014\/03\/understanding-the-past-and-predicting-the-future-of-a-biological-hotspot\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"Science Talk Archive\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2014-03-17T16:18:16+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2014-03-17T16:18:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AF.jpg\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1300\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"863\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/jpeg\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Fabian Michelangeli\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"4 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/\",\"name\":\"Science Talk Archive\",\"description\":\"Exploring the science of plants, from the field to the lab\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\"},{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/2014\/03\/understanding-the-past-and-predicting-the-future-of-a-biological-hotspot\/#primaryimage\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-US\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AF.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/www.nybg.org\/blogs\/science-talk\/content\/uploads\/2014\/03\/AF.jpg\",\"width\":1300,\"height\":863,\"caption\":\"Canopy of Atlantic Forest in Espiritu Santo. 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